Fear is worse than Flu

The real disaster in an influenza pandemic -whether you believe it will come from birds or from another source- is not the disease itself but the fear of dying from it.

True, the Spanish Flu of 1918 killed over 20 million people. But in proportion to the population at that time, it was still a very small percentage, less than 1%.

That's right. Your chance of dying from the next influenza pandemic are less than 1%. That's a lot lower than the risks from cancer or from car accidents.

What I find deplorable is that most of the news stories so far have been about the potential number of deaths. The real danger that we face has nothing to do with death but everything to do with the living conditions once the pademic is over.

Let me explain.

People will be afraid; actually many are already afraid. This means people will prefer to lock themselves up in their homes at the risk of losing everything else -their jobs, their pensions, their savings, their homes- in fear of losing their lives.

Without workers, employers will be forced to shut down. Without goods being produced and sold, the whole economy of the world will fail. Investments will be annihilated, money will lose its value, in short our whole way of life will be threatened.

Yet our governments are content to encourage stockpiling of useless medication and enriching the pharmaceutical companies, seemingly ignoring the economic risk at hand.

On a personal basis, do you know what your employer will do? Will you continue to be paid even if you won't or can't go to work? Will your bank foreclose on your mortgage if you don't make the payments? What if your employer goes bankrupt? Will you be able to find a new job along with the millions also unemployed because of massive bankruptcies throughout the country?

And what will governments do? If there are no incomes to tax because of massive unemployment and no money left in the treasury because everything was spent on medical expenses, how will governments help the citizens?

These are the real -yet unanswered- questions about Influenza Pandemic.

Next time you meet an elected official, ask what he or she is doing to preserve the economy after the influenza pandemic.

Yours truly,

Alain Normand

Bird flu, no longer newsworthy

It's been a while since I added to my blog. Did you notice it's also been a while since we heard of bird flu in the news? Yes, the hype is gone. The pandemic that was looming over the world seems forgotten. After almost three years now since the first bird flu case, there is still no evidence of any potential human to human transmission. So the media just gave up and went somewhere else for stories.

What does it mean?

Just what I said all along. That the next pandemic will not come from birds. It will most likely come -just as every other pandemic in history- from swine.

Because, don't be fooled by the absence of news on this, the pandemic will come. Humanity has seen three major pandemics and three minor pandemics during the last century; we are overdue for the next one. Don't rely on birds for it, but don't become complacent.

Oh, and don't listen to the drug manufacturers. Tamiflu and its counterparts will do you absolutely no good. A friend of mine who managed to get his hands on some Tamiflu read the paper that came with it. He noticed that there were more contra-indications (reasons for not taking the medication) than there were indications. Everyone from pregnant women to diabetics seemed to be on the list, basically confirming our impression that Tamiflu is totally useless.

I have my homeopath's number handy. As soon as we get to a stage where the symptoms are identified, I am calling her for my medication against that particular strain of influenza.

It's not because media doesn't care any more that the threat is gone. So I'm watching and I'm prepared.

Are you?

Alain Normand
Author, teacher, lecturer.