I've had a few questions related to homeopathy and influenza. I have to admit that I am not an expert in homeopathy, just a believer. My family and I are now under the care of a homeopath. While everybody in our area was lining up in the cold for hours while swearing and cursing at the inefficiency of the government in planning these vaccination clinics, I got my three little pills without waiting, mixed them with water and had everyone in our household take a teaspoon of the mixture. We'll go back for a second dose of it in January and repeat the process. Everybody around us at work, at school, at church and in the neighbourhood either had the vaccine or where sick but none of us had any of the symptoms exerted by so many. We didn't miss work, we didn't miss school (to the regret of at least one member of the family), and we go on with our normal business.
All of that for about $20.00 Canadian.
I can't tell you how it works, but it does. If you want more on homeopathy and influenza check this web site: www.estayhealthy.com
For the person who wants to get rid of the Tamiflu already in her body, I would suggest you contact my homeopath if there isn't one in your area. Her name is Karen Jonas, check the web site for contact information. You can mention my name and my blog she will be happy that someone contacted her through this means.
By the way, I hate needles and not having to go through the pain of a vaccine is an added bonus to be considered.
No hoax there.
Alain Normand
Saturday, December 05, 2009
Sunday, May 03, 2009
H1N1 treatment options: Tamiflu, Relenza, homeopathy
Ken, a colleague in the field of emergency management, has been corresponding with me over the last week and was asking about Tamiflu and Relenza. I offered my advice and he collected the responses, assembling them into a Q&A format then posted this on another blog. You can find this at http://canucksem.wordpress.com/. Thanks Ken.
I did mention amongst other answers that my preference for treatment is with homeopathy. If anyone is looking for more information on homeopathy, I have a number of links posted on a section of the web page for my book "The Return of the Spanish Lady: The 1918 Influenza is Back". You can link to it here: homeopathy
Stay healthy.
Alain
I did mention amongst other answers that my preference for treatment is with homeopathy. If anyone is looking for more information on homeopathy, I have a number of links posted on a section of the web page for my book "The Return of the Spanish Lady: The 1918 Influenza is Back". You can link to it here: homeopathy
Stay healthy.
Alain
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Flu is from pigs, I told you so!
While the rest of the world was looking at the Avian Flu as the source of the next pandemic, I indicated in my earlier blogs that the scientific facts all went against that theory.
Basically, when pigs fly then you might have a pandemic emerging from an Avian Flu.
I guess I can now look back and say "I told you so!". In fact, the only theory of mine that was wrong was the country of origin. I thought this would come from East Asia just like the previous influenza pandemics, but it cames from Mexico instead. To check out my predictions and other aspects of the risks related to influenza, check back on some of my previous post.
The real questions is: what now? My answer, do not panic!
In Canada we have 4,000 deaths during the flu season every year. In the States, there are close to 30,000 deaths. Even with 113 deaths in Mexico, one in the US, and over 1,200 people infected worldwide, we are still far away from the level of risk the annual flu represents.
The problem resides mainly with media. They are blowing this out of proportion. I ave to admit that we are all a bit guilty of pushing the media in that direction. We all long for sensationalism in the news. Good news is boring. Disasters are attractive. We have to remember that media is a business and they have to make profit. To do so they need people to watch, listen, and read. This in turn drives the cost of advertisement up.
We all have to take a step back and put this epidemic into perspective. Don't let the hype get to you. Consider good health habits, eating well, sleeping well, exercising, and generally building up your immune system. Then make sure you regularly wash your hands to reduce the spread of infection. Wash surfaces you work on such as your desktop, but also clean your computer keyboard, your telephone handset, and anything else that could have been handled by someone else.
For now that is the only precaution you can take. If this gets worse, and it probably will, then you may want to consider increased precautions, but I'll leave that for a future blog.
In the meantime, stay healthy.
Alain Normand
Basically, when pigs fly then you might have a pandemic emerging from an Avian Flu.
I guess I can now look back and say "I told you so!". In fact, the only theory of mine that was wrong was the country of origin. I thought this would come from East Asia just like the previous influenza pandemics, but it cames from Mexico instead. To check out my predictions and other aspects of the risks related to influenza, check back on some of my previous post.
The real questions is: what now? My answer, do not panic!
In Canada we have 4,000 deaths during the flu season every year. In the States, there are close to 30,000 deaths. Even with 113 deaths in Mexico, one in the US, and over 1,200 people infected worldwide, we are still far away from the level of risk the annual flu represents.
The problem resides mainly with media. They are blowing this out of proportion. I ave to admit that we are all a bit guilty of pushing the media in that direction. We all long for sensationalism in the news. Good news is boring. Disasters are attractive. We have to remember that media is a business and they have to make profit. To do so they need people to watch, listen, and read. This in turn drives the cost of advertisement up.
We all have to take a step back and put this epidemic into perspective. Don't let the hype get to you. Consider good health habits, eating well, sleeping well, exercising, and generally building up your immune system. Then make sure you regularly wash your hands to reduce the spread of infection. Wash surfaces you work on such as your desktop, but also clean your computer keyboard, your telephone handset, and anything else that could have been handled by someone else.
For now that is the only precaution you can take. If this gets worse, and it probably will, then you may want to consider increased precautions, but I'll leave that for a future blog.
In the meantime, stay healthy.
Alain Normand
Friday, March 27, 2009
Avian Flu is dead! Don't buy Tamiflu.
Not much action lately on the Avian Flu front. I guess old news doesn't interest the media any more. The World Health Organization does continue to monitor the Avian Flu situation in countries where it is still occurring. See the results here. Unless you're in China, Egypt or Vietnam, it seems you have nothing to fear. For the rest of the world, avian flu is dead.
Or is it?
The pharmaceutical companies involved in making the various antivirals, namely the Tamiflu and the Relenza, may have seemed to slow down on their propaganda. The reality is that they are going at it from a different angle now. Most organizations that were scared into stockpiling antivirals during the 2003 to 2005 fear campaign are now being approached because the stock they purchased then has reached it maturity date. These "pro-active" organizations now have old stock on their hand that they will have to discard and replace by new stocks.
For those companies who invested and are now faced with a loss of the investment, particularly under difficult economic conditions, it may time to revisit your position.
What pressured you to buy into this plan in the first place?
Was it:
- Media pressure?
- Internal pressure from union groups or staff?
- Direct pressure from the pharmaceutical companies?
Either way, before buying again you should consider what has been provided before.
1 - Avian Flu has still not been proven to be able to mutate into a form that will allow human-to-human tranmission. Unless you are in the poultry business, your chances of contracting the avian flu are almost as high as that of being hit by a meteor.
2 - Test have shown that not only the antivirals are ineffective, but they have many side effects i.e. liver problems, dementia
3 - The only people working to make use of antivirals mandatory are those that benefit directly from the sale of the products. For more on this and the Rumsfeld swindle see the blog called Life Through My Eyes: The bird flu hoax.
Once again as I write this, I want to include a caveat. The risk of influenza pandemic is real. History has shown that this kind of of situation occurs on a cyclical basis. We have had three major and three minor pandemics in the last century. Read some of my previous posts to find out more. Also go to this site to get more on the impacts of pandemics.
As I have mentioned before, medication isn't the solution, building up your immune system is. So how do we build up our immunity to influenza? Common healthy living practices:
- Develop or maintain good eating habits
- Have lots of sleep
- Exercise
- Reduce stress
- Stop smoking
- Get regular medical check-ups
When viruses are around then a few more good habits need to come into play:
- Hand washing
- Cough etiquette (sneezing in your armpit instead of your hands)
- Social distancing (staying three feet from the person you are talking with0
- Sanitation (cleaning your keyboard, phone or workspace before and after use)
- Encouraging a practice to stay home when you think you are ill
If you are one of the decision-makers in a company that has to look into restocking of anti-virals, my recommendation is, don't waste your money. Invest instead into an HR Emergency Plan. If you don't know where to start for such a plan, send me a note and I'll provide you with some information, free, no catch.
On the flu look-out,
Alain Normand
Sunday, August 12, 2007
N-95 or Bond 007
Another meeting to discuss the topic of masks in an influenza pandemic. Many professionals are swearing by the N-95 model of mask as the only real protection available. I say that the N-95 can't protect you from the influenza any more than James Bond 007 could.
The reason behind this is not that the masks aren't good, it's that people don't use them properly. This was evident during the SARS crisis. Health workers used gloves, gowns and masks everywhere. This equipment over time became hot, sticky, scratchy, altogether very uncomfortable and workers wanted to get out of them as soon as possible. In particular, I saw nurses in cafeterias taking the mask off their face and raising it to plop it on their head while they were eating. As soon as they finished eating, they would bring the mask back down over their mouths. Of course the mask at that time would have been contaminated with whatever was in their hair, rendering it useless.
The whole question of masks is one of proper attitude. During the SARS, most people in China wore masks. The reasoning for wearing them however, was not to protect themselves but to protect others. There was a social consciousness at play here. From this point of view any mask is useful to stop the droplets that we send when we speak.
What is needed around the world but particularly in North America, is a whole campaign on how we should protect others in a pandemic by wearing masks; any kind of mask. That's the disucssion we need to engage in and not only amongst health and emergency professionals.
So if you want real protection, neither the N-95 nor James Bond can help, only a legitimate concern by all of us for our fellow citizens will do the trick. Someone has to promote this attitude. Let's take example from the Chinese.
To the health of all of us,
Alain Normand
The reason behind this is not that the masks aren't good, it's that people don't use them properly. This was evident during the SARS crisis. Health workers used gloves, gowns and masks everywhere. This equipment over time became hot, sticky, scratchy, altogether very uncomfortable and workers wanted to get out of them as soon as possible. In particular, I saw nurses in cafeterias taking the mask off their face and raising it to plop it on their head while they were eating. As soon as they finished eating, they would bring the mask back down over their mouths. Of course the mask at that time would have been contaminated with whatever was in their hair, rendering it useless.
The whole question of masks is one of proper attitude. During the SARS, most people in China wore masks. The reasoning for wearing them however, was not to protect themselves but to protect others. There was a social consciousness at play here. From this point of view any mask is useful to stop the droplets that we send when we speak.
What is needed around the world but particularly in North America, is a whole campaign on how we should protect others in a pandemic by wearing masks; any kind of mask. That's the disucssion we need to engage in and not only amongst health and emergency professionals.
So if you want real protection, neither the N-95 nor James Bond can help, only a legitimate concern by all of us for our fellow citizens will do the trick. Someone has to promote this attitude. Let's take example from the Chinese.
To the health of all of us,
Alain Normand
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Fear is worse than Flu
The real disaster in an influenza pandemic -whether you believe it will come from birds or from another source- is not the disease itself but the fear of dying from it.
True, the Spanish Flu of 1918 killed over 20 million people. But in proportion to the population at that time, it was still a very small percentage, less than 1%.
That's right. Your chance of dying from the next influenza pandemic are less than 1%. That's a lot lower than the risks from cancer or from car accidents.
What I find deplorable is that most of the news stories so far have been about the potential number of deaths. The real danger that we face has nothing to do with death but everything to do with the living conditions once the pademic is over.
Let me explain.
People will be afraid; actually many are already afraid. This means people will prefer to lock themselves up in their homes at the risk of losing everything else -their jobs, their pensions, their savings, their homes- in fear of losing their lives.
Without workers, employers will be forced to shut down. Without goods being produced and sold, the whole economy of the world will fail. Investments will be annihilated, money will lose its value, in short our whole way of life will be threatened.
Yet our governments are content to encourage stockpiling of useless medication and enriching the pharmaceutical companies, seemingly ignoring the economic risk at hand.
On a personal basis, do you know what your employer will do? Will you continue to be paid even if you won't or can't go to work? Will your bank foreclose on your mortgage if you don't make the payments? What if your employer goes bankrupt? Will you be able to find a new job along with the millions also unemployed because of massive bankruptcies throughout the country?
And what will governments do? If there are no incomes to tax because of massive unemployment and no money left in the treasury because everything was spent on medical expenses, how will governments help the citizens?
These are the real -yet unanswered- questions about Influenza Pandemic.
Next time you meet an elected official, ask what he or she is doing to preserve the economy after the influenza pandemic.
Yours truly,
Alain Normand
True, the Spanish Flu of 1918 killed over 20 million people. But in proportion to the population at that time, it was still a very small percentage, less than 1%.
That's right. Your chance of dying from the next influenza pandemic are less than 1%. That's a lot lower than the risks from cancer or from car accidents.
What I find deplorable is that most of the news stories so far have been about the potential number of deaths. The real danger that we face has nothing to do with death but everything to do with the living conditions once the pademic is over.
Let me explain.
People will be afraid; actually many are already afraid. This means people will prefer to lock themselves up in their homes at the risk of losing everything else -their jobs, their pensions, their savings, their homes- in fear of losing their lives.
Without workers, employers will be forced to shut down. Without goods being produced and sold, the whole economy of the world will fail. Investments will be annihilated, money will lose its value, in short our whole way of life will be threatened.
Yet our governments are content to encourage stockpiling of useless medication and enriching the pharmaceutical companies, seemingly ignoring the economic risk at hand.
On a personal basis, do you know what your employer will do? Will you continue to be paid even if you won't or can't go to work? Will your bank foreclose on your mortgage if you don't make the payments? What if your employer goes bankrupt? Will you be able to find a new job along with the millions also unemployed because of massive bankruptcies throughout the country?
And what will governments do? If there are no incomes to tax because of massive unemployment and no money left in the treasury because everything was spent on medical expenses, how will governments help the citizens?
These are the real -yet unanswered- questions about Influenza Pandemic.
Next time you meet an elected official, ask what he or she is doing to preserve the economy after the influenza pandemic.
Yours truly,
Alain Normand
Bird flu, no longer newsworthy
It's been a while since I added to my blog. Did you notice it's also been a while since we heard of bird flu in the news? Yes, the hype is gone. The pandemic that was looming over the world seems forgotten. After almost three years now since the first bird flu case, there is still no evidence of any potential human to human transmission. So the media just gave up and went somewhere else for stories.
What does it mean?
Just what I said all along. That the next pandemic will not come from birds. It will most likely come -just as every other pandemic in history- from swine.
Because, don't be fooled by the absence of news on this, the pandemic will come. Humanity has seen three major pandemics and three minor pandemics during the last century; we are overdue for the next one. Don't rely on birds for it, but don't become complacent.
Oh, and don't listen to the drug manufacturers. Tamiflu and its counterparts will do you absolutely no good. A friend of mine who managed to get his hands on some Tamiflu read the paper that came with it. He noticed that there were more contra-indications (reasons for not taking the medication) than there were indications. Everyone from pregnant women to diabetics seemed to be on the list, basically confirming our impression that Tamiflu is totally useless.
I have my homeopath's number handy. As soon as we get to a stage where the symptoms are identified, I am calling her for my medication against that particular strain of influenza.
It's not because media doesn't care any more that the threat is gone. So I'm watching and I'm prepared.
Are you?
Alain Normand
Author, teacher, lecturer.
What does it mean?
Just what I said all along. That the next pandemic will not come from birds. It will most likely come -just as every other pandemic in history- from swine.
Because, don't be fooled by the absence of news on this, the pandemic will come. Humanity has seen three major pandemics and three minor pandemics during the last century; we are overdue for the next one. Don't rely on birds for it, but don't become complacent.
Oh, and don't listen to the drug manufacturers. Tamiflu and its counterparts will do you absolutely no good. A friend of mine who managed to get his hands on some Tamiflu read the paper that came with it. He noticed that there were more contra-indications (reasons for not taking the medication) than there were indications. Everyone from pregnant women to diabetics seemed to be on the list, basically confirming our impression that Tamiflu is totally useless.
I have my homeopath's number handy. As soon as we get to a stage where the symptoms are identified, I am calling her for my medication against that particular strain of influenza.
It's not because media doesn't care any more that the threat is gone. So I'm watching and I'm prepared.
Are you?
Alain Normand
Author, teacher, lecturer.
Saturday, October 14, 2006
The blind healing the blind
The medical profession is blind. Most Family Doctors today have had about two or three hours of University training on the topic of influenza and colds. These people rely on what they read just as much as we do. They have very little expertise unless they devote themselves to the research on this particular topic. So how do they decide what to give you to treat your colds and your flu.
Simple answer: They rely on the pharmaceutical companies who give them samples to promote their own goods.
Family Doctors are well meaning people in general and they care but they are mislead in so many ways that there is no possiblity for them to make the difference between what is truth and what is a hoax. The pharmaceutical companies put so much effort into the marketing of their products that doctors have no ability to resist the push for drugs. In addition, our society is so used to having a pill for every illness that doctors feel compelled to provide us with prescriptions. So they are being harrassed both ways, from the demanding public and from the pushy pharmaceutical companies.
Because of this attitude of the medical profession, the College of Physicians and Surgeons has always insisted on providing solutions to every situation they are faced with. I have yet to find a physician or family doctor that tells me he or she doesn't have a cure for my illness. If you show up at their clinic with something, you are almost guaranteed to come out with a prescription of some kind. Even if the doctor has no clue as to what ails you, he/she will give you a medication for it. If you don't belive me do the experiment yourself. Next time you are ill, go to your doctor. Once you are done with this doctor, go to another clinic and see what that doctor says. Go to three or four clinics. Chances are very strong that you will come out with three or four different diagnostic and three of four different prescription.
So how does this related to the Bird Flu Hoax? The way I see it, the medical profession knows that there is a risk of a widespread diseases for which they have no solution. However, because they are unwilling to admit that they can't do anything, they deny their limitations and try to invent a solution anyway. So when word of a possible Influenza Pandemic started based on its cyclical nature (there was no Bird Flu at the time), they quickly told everyone not to worry since vaccines would take care of the problem.
But people today are educated. Very soon that solution fell through when people learned that it will take four to six months from the onset of the disease to develop a vaccine and another four to six months to produce enough for the poopulation in "developed" countries. Since the virus itself will probably spread around the world in six to ten weeks, it means that everyone will have either died from the virus or recovered by the time the vaccine is even conceived. Oops! There goes that option.
Did the medical profession admit they had no solution then? Never. They now looked to "antivirals" of which Tamiflu was the main proponent. Of course the pharmaceutical was very obligating here but that will be the topic of a future blog entry. The problem with antivirals is that they don't prevent the disease, they don't cure the disease, they only reduce the lenght of the illness by a couple of days. If your body is strong enough to resist the virus anyway, when you take these antivirals you are only helping your body's own immune system work faster. But you are doing this at a very high risk.
For one thing you are using a mixture of chemical products. I believe every chemical product which is not obtained through organic food sources is potentially harmful. But even if you don't agree with this, you need to know that antivirals have been the object of very little long term testing. There are side effects that are now starting to crop but because of the strenght of the pharmaceutical companies, we don't hear about it. In particular, some research indicates that there are liver complications that can arise in over 10% of the population.
Do physicians worry about this? Probably not because they only read what they get from the companies that actually produce the medication. Since it gives them a possibility of handing out more prescriptions and it allows them to say that they do have a solution, they won't dare to do any further research.
In my book, "The Return of the Spanish Lady; The 1918 Influenza Virus is Back" I propose another solution. I suggest through my novel that natural medecines are the way to prepare for the Influenza Pandemic that may come - not from birds - some day soon. In particular, I researched on homeopathy and discovered that the rate of survival of people treated this way in 1918 was close to 90% in comparison to 35% survival rate for people treated in so-called modern medecine.
You decide. Will you trust you family doctor? Will you trust the money making pharmaceutical companies? Are you ready for more harmful chemical to be pumped into your body? Or would you rather find natural ways to enhance your body's immune system?
Remember, the medical profession is blind. It's the blind trying to heal the blind. I certainly don't trust them even if they are well-meaning, generally caring people. The Bird Flu is a hoax and they are playing right into it, trying to drag us along.
To your health.
Alain Normand
(For more information on Homeopathy, please go to my web site and find all the links on this page related to my book:
http://ca.geocities.com/alainnormand@rogers.com/spanish.html)
Simple answer: They rely on the pharmaceutical companies who give them samples to promote their own goods.
Family Doctors are well meaning people in general and they care but they are mislead in so many ways that there is no possiblity for them to make the difference between what is truth and what is a hoax. The pharmaceutical companies put so much effort into the marketing of their products that doctors have no ability to resist the push for drugs. In addition, our society is so used to having a pill for every illness that doctors feel compelled to provide us with prescriptions. So they are being harrassed both ways, from the demanding public and from the pushy pharmaceutical companies.
Because of this attitude of the medical profession, the College of Physicians and Surgeons has always insisted on providing solutions to every situation they are faced with. I have yet to find a physician or family doctor that tells me he or she doesn't have a cure for my illness. If you show up at their clinic with something, you are almost guaranteed to come out with a prescription of some kind. Even if the doctor has no clue as to what ails you, he/she will give you a medication for it. If you don't belive me do the experiment yourself. Next time you are ill, go to your doctor. Once you are done with this doctor, go to another clinic and see what that doctor says. Go to three or four clinics. Chances are very strong that you will come out with three or four different diagnostic and three of four different prescription.
So how does this related to the Bird Flu Hoax? The way I see it, the medical profession knows that there is a risk of a widespread diseases for which they have no solution. However, because they are unwilling to admit that they can't do anything, they deny their limitations and try to invent a solution anyway. So when word of a possible Influenza Pandemic started based on its cyclical nature (there was no Bird Flu at the time), they quickly told everyone not to worry since vaccines would take care of the problem.
But people today are educated. Very soon that solution fell through when people learned that it will take four to six months from the onset of the disease to develop a vaccine and another four to six months to produce enough for the poopulation in "developed" countries. Since the virus itself will probably spread around the world in six to ten weeks, it means that everyone will have either died from the virus or recovered by the time the vaccine is even conceived. Oops! There goes that option.
Did the medical profession admit they had no solution then? Never. They now looked to "antivirals" of which Tamiflu was the main proponent. Of course the pharmaceutical was very obligating here but that will be the topic of a future blog entry. The problem with antivirals is that they don't prevent the disease, they don't cure the disease, they only reduce the lenght of the illness by a couple of days. If your body is strong enough to resist the virus anyway, when you take these antivirals you are only helping your body's own immune system work faster. But you are doing this at a very high risk.
For one thing you are using a mixture of chemical products. I believe every chemical product which is not obtained through organic food sources is potentially harmful. But even if you don't agree with this, you need to know that antivirals have been the object of very little long term testing. There are side effects that are now starting to crop but because of the strenght of the pharmaceutical companies, we don't hear about it. In particular, some research indicates that there are liver complications that can arise in over 10% of the population.
Do physicians worry about this? Probably not because they only read what they get from the companies that actually produce the medication. Since it gives them a possibility of handing out more prescriptions and it allows them to say that they do have a solution, they won't dare to do any further research.
In my book, "The Return of the Spanish Lady; The 1918 Influenza Virus is Back" I propose another solution. I suggest through my novel that natural medecines are the way to prepare for the Influenza Pandemic that may come - not from birds - some day soon. In particular, I researched on homeopathy and discovered that the rate of survival of people treated this way in 1918 was close to 90% in comparison to 35% survival rate for people treated in so-called modern medecine.
You decide. Will you trust you family doctor? Will you trust the money making pharmaceutical companies? Are you ready for more harmful chemical to be pumped into your body? Or would you rather find natural ways to enhance your body's immune system?
Remember, the medical profession is blind. It's the blind trying to heal the blind. I certainly don't trust them even if they are well-meaning, generally caring people. The Bird Flu is a hoax and they are playing right into it, trying to drag us along.
To your health.
Alain Normand
(For more information on Homeopathy, please go to my web site and find all the links on this page related to my book:
http://ca.geocities.com/alainnormand@rogers.com/spanish.html)
Tuesday, October 03, 2006
Life is fragile
I didn't write for a few days and my thoughts are jumbled right now. My next door neighbour was killed in a motorcycle accident last Thursday. He just retired three months ago and was finally enjoying life, living his dreams, after years of hard work. As I am trying to be objective about Avian Flu and all the media hoopla over it, I find that life is so fragile. One instant you are here and the next you are gone.
Why I am furious at the Avian Flu hoaxsters (if there is such a word) is because they turn the world's attention to a situation which is very minor even though tragic, when compared to the real pandemics of the world such as the HIV/AIDS in Africa, the famines and poor living conditions in more than half of the world. People who distract us from where the real needs are in order to make a profit are criminals and should be brought to justice just as Saddam Hussein is, for crimes against humanity.
Maybe, it's the death of my good neighbour leaving behind his wife and kids, that affects me right now. I'll try to get back soon to my thoughts on Avian Flu and the hoax I believe hides underneath it all, but I'm too shaken up.
See you soon.
Alain
Why I am furious at the Avian Flu hoaxsters (if there is such a word) is because they turn the world's attention to a situation which is very minor even though tragic, when compared to the real pandemics of the world such as the HIV/AIDS in Africa, the famines and poor living conditions in more than half of the world. People who distract us from where the real needs are in order to make a profit are criminals and should be brought to justice just as Saddam Hussein is, for crimes against humanity.
Maybe, it's the death of my good neighbour leaving behind his wife and kids, that affects me right now. I'll try to get back soon to my thoughts on Avian Flu and the hoax I believe hides underneath it all, but I'm too shaken up.
See you soon.
Alain
Thursday, September 28, 2006
Avian Flu, the real numbers
You may know the saying: numbers don't lie, but liars are good with numbers. Taken out of context, statistics can be very deceiving. So here are some of the numbers that we were given. Let's try to see what they really mean.
As of today (September 28, 2006), 251 cases and 148 deaths have been reported by the World Health Organization from Avian Influenza since 2003. Most of the cases were found in Vietnam (93), Indonesia (68), Thailand (25), and China (21) with Egypt (14) and Turkey (12) having started to report cases since early 2006.
This initially seems a frightening percentage of deaths per person infected; 59% death rate.
However, you need to know that these figures account only for the cases actually reported. You have to realize that in these countries the access to health services is very limited. People don't have money to pay for medical services and are often scared to go to hospitals and clinics. When they do resort to medical help, it's often too late to do anything, at least through modern medical methods.
So the real figures are probably very different from what is reported. There may be many more people infected with the virus but they get better on their own through resistance. To get the exact numbers we would have to test every person in those countries for antibodies that would show they had recovered from the disease. That option is simply not viable. Not only it would be very costly, but it would only give a picture of the situation at the time of the testing. The data could be obsolete a week later.
The realization that there are likely more human cases than reported has two implications. First, the bird flu may be much more prevalent in those countries than we think; poultry being much more affected than what is believed. There are two potency levels of the avian influenza virus referred to as a low pathogenic strain and a high pathogenic strain. The reason for the small number of avian flu cases reported in birds could be related to the fact that these birds are affected by a low pathogenic strain which doesn't kill them but can infect humans. Being a low pathogenic strain it is also milder in humans and therefore a small number of people actually get to a stage where they require hospital care.
The other implication is that although avian flu may be more prevalent than we think, the transmission from bird to human is still extremely limited. In the above countries a number of conditions exist that are not mirrored in North America:
As of today (September 28, 2006), 251 cases and 148 deaths have been reported by the World Health Organization from Avian Influenza since 2003. Most of the cases were found in Vietnam (93), Indonesia (68), Thailand (25), and China (21) with Egypt (14) and Turkey (12) having started to report cases since early 2006.
This initially seems a frightening percentage of deaths per person infected; 59% death rate.
However, you need to know that these figures account only for the cases actually reported. You have to realize that in these countries the access to health services is very limited. People don't have money to pay for medical services and are often scared to go to hospitals and clinics. When they do resort to medical help, it's often too late to do anything, at least through modern medical methods.
So the real figures are probably very different from what is reported. There may be many more people infected with the virus but they get better on their own through resistance. To get the exact numbers we would have to test every person in those countries for antibodies that would show they had recovered from the disease. That option is simply not viable. Not only it would be very costly, but it would only give a picture of the situation at the time of the testing. The data could be obsolete a week later.
The realization that there are likely more human cases than reported has two implications. First, the bird flu may be much more prevalent in those countries than we think; poultry being much more affected than what is believed. There are two potency levels of the avian influenza virus referred to as a low pathogenic strain and a high pathogenic strain. The reason for the small number of avian flu cases reported in birds could be related to the fact that these birds are affected by a low pathogenic strain which doesn't kill them but can infect humans. Being a low pathogenic strain it is also milder in humans and therefore a small number of people actually get to a stage where they require hospital care.
The other implication is that although avian flu may be more prevalent than we think, the transmission from bird to human is still extremely limited. In the above countries a number of conditions exist that are not mirrored in North America:
- A large portion of the families have domesticated poultry particularly in rural areas
- Most the chicken are found in areas where they can intermingle with wild fowl and therefore susceptible to contracting wild avian influenza (remember, the influenza is native in wild fowl; it doesn't affect them)
- There are no widespread measures to test for presence of influenza
- People come in close contact with their poultry on a daily basis
This in principle should lead to a very high rate of avian flu in humans, but the numbers are actually very low. So either people have either been sick and recovered, or they have built an immunity to the virus. Or even more likely - based on research I alluded to previously - the avian flu has a very low transmission potential.
In the end we see that the numbers we are given by the WHO are actually no indication whatsoever of the reality when it comes to the extent of spread of the disease either in birds or in humans.
To continue with the idea of putting numbers in the right context, when these number are taken in comparison to population, the picture gets even more interesting. Let's examine each of the countries indicated above, the number of cases and the total population.
Vietnam: 93 cases/80 900 000 population = 0,115% or 1,15 person per thousand people
Thailand: 25 cases/63 080 000 = 0,04% or 4,0 per ten thousand people
Indonesia: 68 cases/213 720 000 = 0,032% or 3,2 per ten thousand people
Egypt: 14 cases/73 671 000 = 0,019% or 1,9 per ten thousand people
Turkey: 12 cases/70 710 000 = 0,017% or 1,7 per ten thousand people
China: 21 cases/1 266 838 000 = 0,002% 2,0 per one hundred thousand people
If we take an average for these countries, we get one 1,3 person affected for every ten thousand people. Even if this kind of situation would spread worldwide, it would still have a minor impact. I don't know the population where you live, but here in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, we are supposedly about 3 million people. If I take the same average and I apply it to Toronto, I get 0,4 person affected. Less than one person will actually get sick within our population. It actually takes about 8 million people in a City or area before we get one case of infection. To me that's a pretty low rate. This proves again that the Avian Flu is actually very difficult to spread.
So why are the medical authorities so much in an uproar over this.
Stay tuned. More to come on the financial benefits of creating an Avian Flu panic.
Alain Normand
P.S. I'm not being insensitive here. Every life is important and every death is disturbing; 148 deaths are tragic. I am simply trying to put this situation in the proper context. Later on I intend to discuss why the same kind of alarm isn't raised with regards to HIV/Aids. In my mind that is a much more tragic, real, and current pandemic than the Avian Flu. So why isn't the same kind of money allotted to HIV/Aids as what is now being provided towards fighting or preventing Avian Flu? A.N.
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Research dispells myths
I said that there is no proof that Avian Influenza can mutate to become a virus transmissible from human to human. Actually every scientific experiment that was done so far prove exactly the opposite.
Avian Flu is not the cause of the historical pandemics, Swine Flu is. You don't believe me, then see the results presented in the medical journals for yourself:
Pigs are the usual mixing vessel
National Center for Biotechnology Information
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=8091678&dopt=Abstract
Journal of Virology
http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/73/10/8851
Research proves that without the inclusion of pigs in the equation the Influenza Virus does not get transmitted from human to human
Journal of Virology
http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/74/18/8502
Avian Flu does not mutate into a form that is easily transmissible from human to human. Here is the research on that:
Test on humans volunteers shows that humans are actually resistant to most avian influenza
Archives of Virology
http://www.springerlink.com/content/g5228123lv4n1145/
Avian Flu test on animals that have similar compatibility as humans actually fail to produce any kind of infectious propagation of disease. And the articles demonstrate that they tried very hard to make it happen. It just didn't because it can't.
Failure of avian influenza to replicate in ferrets
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/0605134103v1
Centre for Infectious Disease Research and Policy
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/jul3106reassort.html
Failure of avian influenza virus to replicate in primates
National Center for Biotechnology Information
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=6501928&dopt=Citation
Journal of Virology
http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/61/9/2857
So here it is. The only Influenza Pandemic that is likely to occur is the one that will start in swine, not birds. The Avian Flu Pandemic scare is a hoax.
Keep checking back for more proof and more data.
Alain Normand
P.S. My book "The Return of the Spanish Lady: the 1918 Influenza Virus is Back" presents the scenario of an Influenza Virus based on swine flu. The avian flu is not even in the equation. Get the book at Amazon.com or Authorhouse.com, also at Barnes and Nobles or Chapters-Indigo.
Avian Flu is not the cause of the historical pandemics, Swine Flu is. You don't believe me, then see the results presented in the medical journals for yourself:
Pigs are the usual mixing vessel
National Center for Biotechnology Information
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=8091678&dopt=Abstract
Journal of Virology
http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/73/10/8851
Research proves that without the inclusion of pigs in the equation the Influenza Virus does not get transmitted from human to human
Journal of Virology
http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/74/18/8502
Avian Flu does not mutate into a form that is easily transmissible from human to human. Here is the research on that:
Test on humans volunteers shows that humans are actually resistant to most avian influenza
Archives of Virology
http://www.springerlink.com/content/g5228123lv4n1145/
Avian Flu test on animals that have similar compatibility as humans actually fail to produce any kind of infectious propagation of disease. And the articles demonstrate that they tried very hard to make it happen. It just didn't because it can't.
Failure of avian influenza to replicate in ferrets
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/0605134103v1
Centre for Infectious Disease Research and Policy
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/jul3106reassort.html
Failure of avian influenza virus to replicate in primates
National Center for Biotechnology Information
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=6501928&dopt=Citation
Journal of Virology
http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/61/9/2857
So here it is. The only Influenza Pandemic that is likely to occur is the one that will start in swine, not birds. The Avian Flu Pandemic scare is a hoax.
Keep checking back for more proof and more data.
Alain Normand
P.S. My book "The Return of the Spanish Lady: the 1918 Influenza Virus is Back" presents the scenario of an Influenza Virus based on swine flu. The avian flu is not even in the equation. Get the book at Amazon.com or Authorhouse.com, also at Barnes and Nobles or Chapters-Indigo.
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
"Why a hoax?" You ask.
I will later get into the background on why this hoax started in the first place and why it is perpetuated, but for now I want to start with the scientific facts.
1 - There is absolutely no evidence that the current Avian Flu has any potential to turn into a Pandemic. The type of Influenza Virus that causes Avian Flu is native in wild fowl and it does not affect them negatively. Only when poultry comes in contact with wild fowl does the virus get transmitted and then becomes deadly. At that stage however, it is only transmissible from birds to humans. You literally have to sleep with an infected chicken to catch the virus.
2 - In North America, most if not all farmers have taken all the precautions to ensure their poultry does not interract with wild fowl. Of course nothing is foolproof but even then, in North America we don't usually sleep with our poultry so the risk of an Avian Influenza Pandemic here is almost nil.
3 - Never in history has there been a case of Avian Influenza turning into a strain transmissible from human to human. There have been three major Pandemics in the last century and some partial ones. The 1918 Spanish Flu, the 1957 Asian Flu, and the 1968 Hong Kong Flu all turned into full scale pandemics while the Swine Flu of 1976, the Russain Flu of 1977, and another version in 1947 were all much more contained. Most research suggest that the actual culprit for the origin of Influenza Pandemics is the swine. Certainly it was proven such in 1918 and in 1976, and generally recognised as the most probable source for all the others as well. The main reason for this is that when the pig is infected with Influenza, it's constitution is the most similar - at least at the microbiological level - to that of the human from among all the animals. This implies that an influenza virus is already transmissible from human to human once it spread from pigs to humans because of the similarities in constitution that enable a more rapid development.
4 - No research has ever been documented that would prove any theory of mutation of strains of Influenza in birds. Even in pigs there are a lot of theories about "mixing vessels" floating out there but no hard facts based on scientifally sound research. All the reports hold suppositions and assumptions based on other writings from previous unverified data. Every single person who reports on the probability of mutation of virus bases his or her data on someone else's and when you try to find the initial source, it is only based on possibilities that have never been verified. I have challenged others to prove me wrong on this and I am still waiting.
In future pages, I will provide you with the economic and political reasons behind the Avian Flu scare, as well as the benefits to the medical profession, but most of all the immense gains made by the pharmaceutical industry. I will tell you more on the fallacies related to vaccines and tamiflu (or other antivirals).
Now, I do want to clarify that I believe an Influenza Pandemic could occur. Certainly the fact that we have had three full-blown ones and three partial ones in one century tend to indicate that this is a recurring phenmomena. What I am saying is that the next Influenza Pandemic will have absolutely nothing to do with the current Avian Flu.
But even then, there are many things you should know about an Influenza Pandemic. I will share with you in future pages how the Influenza could really spread, how it would impact North America, what to expect from government, and what is the best way to protect yourself from the disease.
What I hope to do here is to give you a point of view based on three years of intensive research that will balance what you are being fed daily by the people who want you to believe that they have your best interest at heart.
I am not asking you to take what I say blindly. I encourage... no, I urge you to do your own research on this to see if what I am sharing here makes sense. I will try to give you places where you can find out more on the topics that I share.
More to come...
Alain Normand, BA, BSC, CAP, AdmA
Emergency Manager, Researcher, University Professor
Author of "The Return of the Spanish Lady: the 1918 Influenza Virus is Back"
http://ca.geocities.com/alainnormand@rogers.com
1 - There is absolutely no evidence that the current Avian Flu has any potential to turn into a Pandemic. The type of Influenza Virus that causes Avian Flu is native in wild fowl and it does not affect them negatively. Only when poultry comes in contact with wild fowl does the virus get transmitted and then becomes deadly. At that stage however, it is only transmissible from birds to humans. You literally have to sleep with an infected chicken to catch the virus.
2 - In North America, most if not all farmers have taken all the precautions to ensure their poultry does not interract with wild fowl. Of course nothing is foolproof but even then, in North America we don't usually sleep with our poultry so the risk of an Avian Influenza Pandemic here is almost nil.
3 - Never in history has there been a case of Avian Influenza turning into a strain transmissible from human to human. There have been three major Pandemics in the last century and some partial ones. The 1918 Spanish Flu, the 1957 Asian Flu, and the 1968 Hong Kong Flu all turned into full scale pandemics while the Swine Flu of 1976, the Russain Flu of 1977, and another version in 1947 were all much more contained. Most research suggest that the actual culprit for the origin of Influenza Pandemics is the swine. Certainly it was proven such in 1918 and in 1976, and generally recognised as the most probable source for all the others as well. The main reason for this is that when the pig is infected with Influenza, it's constitution is the most similar - at least at the microbiological level - to that of the human from among all the animals. This implies that an influenza virus is already transmissible from human to human once it spread from pigs to humans because of the similarities in constitution that enable a more rapid development.
4 - No research has ever been documented that would prove any theory of mutation of strains of Influenza in birds. Even in pigs there are a lot of theories about "mixing vessels" floating out there but no hard facts based on scientifally sound research. All the reports hold suppositions and assumptions based on other writings from previous unverified data. Every single person who reports on the probability of mutation of virus bases his or her data on someone else's and when you try to find the initial source, it is only based on possibilities that have never been verified. I have challenged others to prove me wrong on this and I am still waiting.
In future pages, I will provide you with the economic and political reasons behind the Avian Flu scare, as well as the benefits to the medical profession, but most of all the immense gains made by the pharmaceutical industry. I will tell you more on the fallacies related to vaccines and tamiflu (or other antivirals).
Now, I do want to clarify that I believe an Influenza Pandemic could occur. Certainly the fact that we have had three full-blown ones and three partial ones in one century tend to indicate that this is a recurring phenmomena. What I am saying is that the next Influenza Pandemic will have absolutely nothing to do with the current Avian Flu.
But even then, there are many things you should know about an Influenza Pandemic. I will share with you in future pages how the Influenza could really spread, how it would impact North America, what to expect from government, and what is the best way to protect yourself from the disease.
What I hope to do here is to give you a point of view based on three years of intensive research that will balance what you are being fed daily by the people who want you to believe that they have your best interest at heart.
I am not asking you to take what I say blindly. I encourage... no, I urge you to do your own research on this to see if what I am sharing here makes sense. I will try to give you places where you can find out more on the topics that I share.
More to come...
Alain Normand, BA, BSC, CAP, AdmA
Emergency Manager, Researcher, University Professor
Author of "The Return of the Spanish Lady: the 1918 Influenza Virus is Back"
http://ca.geocities.com/alainnormand@rogers.com
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